Botev Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv
The Footlab model makes CSKA Sofia the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Botev Plovdiv. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Botev Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia?
CSKA Sofia starts as the favourite with a 150-point Elo edge (1,950 vs 1,800).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Botev Plovdiv have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; CSKA Sofia have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Spartak Varna(home) | 3-2 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(away) | 2-3 | First League |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | OFI(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 5-0 | First League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(away) | 3-0 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Botev Plovdiv win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 CSKA Sofia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | CSKA Sofia 3-2 Botev Plovdiv | First League |
| Nov 22, 2025 | CSKA Sofia 2-1 Botev Plovdiv | First League |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Botev Plovdiv 1-1 CSKA Sofia | First League |
| May 26, 2025 | Botev Plovdiv 0-4 CSKA Sofia | First League |
| May 9, 2025 | CSKA Sofia 3-0 Botev Plovdiv | First League |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Botev Plovdiv 0-3 CSKA Sofia | First League |
Last archived meeting: CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv on Jul 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Botev Plovdiv score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; CSKA Sofia score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Plovdiv | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| CSKA Sofia | 1.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Botev Plovdiv sit 6th in First League (7 points from 5 matches) and CSKA Sofia sit 3rd (13 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Botev Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia?
- The Footlab model makes CSKA Sofia the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Botev Plovdiv.
- Where and when is Botev Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia played?
- Botev Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia is played on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Hristo Botev, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.