Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad
The Footlab model makes Ludogorets the favourite at 68%, against 22% for a draw and 10% for Septemvri Sofia. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia?
Ludogorets is a heavy favourite: 1,987 Elo points against 1,684 — a 303-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ludogorets have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Septemvri Sofia have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(away) | 3-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Hapoel Tel Aviv(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(away) | 1-2 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Ludogorets win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Septemvri Sofia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia 1-0 Ludogorets | Friendlies Clubs |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Septemvri Sofia 1-3 Ludogorets | Cup |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Septemvri Sofia 0-2 Ludogorets | First League |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Ludogorets 5-0 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Mar 3, 2025 | Ludogorets 0-0 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Septemvri Sofia 0-2 Ludogorets | First League |
Last archived meeting: Septemvri Sofia vs Ludogorets on Jul 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ludogorets score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Septemvri Sofia score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Septemvri Sofia | 1.3 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ludogorets sit 1st in First League (16 points from 6 matches) and Septemvri Sofia sit 8th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | Septemvri Sofia | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia?
- The Footlab model makes Ludogorets the favourite at 68%, against 22% for a draw and 10% for Septemvri Sofia.
- Where and when is Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia played?
- Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Huvepharma Arena, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.