Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov, Sofia
The Footlab model makes Slavia Sofia the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Spartak Varna. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Slavia Sofia (1,745) and Spartak Varna (1,714).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Slavia Sofia have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Spartak Varna have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 20, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(home) | 0-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-6 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(away) | 3-0 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Slavia Sofia win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Spartak Varna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Spartak Varna 2-1 Slavia Sofia | First League |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Slavia Sofia 4-0 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Spartak Varna 1-1 Slavia Sofia | First League |
| Dec 9, 2024 | Spartak Varna 1-3 Slavia Sofia | First League |
| Aug 9, 2024 | Slavia Sofia 3-1 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Oct 30, 2022 | Slavia Sofia 2-2 Spartak Varna | First League |
Last archived meeting: Spartak Varna vs Slavia Sofia on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Slavia Sofia score 1.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Spartak Varna score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia | 1.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Spartak Varna | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Slavia Sofia sit 9th in First League (6 points from 5 matches) and Spartak Varna sit 7th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 7 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
- The Footlab model makes Slavia Sofia the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Spartak Varna.
- Where and when is Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna played?
- Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.