CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, Sofia
The Footlab model makes CSKA Sofia the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Arda Kardzhali. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate CSKA Sofia (1,951) and Arda Kardzhali (1,859).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CSKA Sofia have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Arda Kardzhali have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | OFI(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 5-0 | First League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(away) | 3-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(away) | 2-0 | First League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(away) | 1-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 CSKA Sofia win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Arda Kardzhali win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2026 | CSKA Sofia 3-1 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Arda Kardzhali 1-0 CSKA Sofia | First League |
| May 31, 2025 | Arda Kardzhali 1-1 CSKA Sofia | First League |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CSKA Sofia 2-1 Arda Kardzhali | Cup |
| Feb 16, 2025 | CSKA Sofia 2-0 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Arda Kardzhali 2-1 CSKA Sofia | First League |
Last archived meeting: CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali on Feb 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
CSKA Sofia score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Arda Kardzhali score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 1.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 11/15 |
| Arda Kardzhali | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CSKA Sofia sit 3rd in First League (13 points from 5 matches) and Arda Kardzhali sit 5th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali?
- The Footlab model makes CSKA Sofia the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Arda Kardzhali.
- Where and when is CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali played?
- CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.