Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Sofia: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Hristo Botev, Vratsa
The Footlab model makes Botev Vratsa the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Lokomotiv Sofia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Botev Vratsa (1,739) and Lokomotiv Sofia (1,721).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Botev Vratsa have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Lokomotiv Sofia have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(away) | 0-5 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(away) | 1-3 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 1-3 | First League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Levski Sofia(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 1-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Botev Vratsa win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Lokomotiv Sofia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia 2-2 Botev Vratsa | First League |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Botev Vratsa 3-2 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Lokomotiv Sofia 0-1 Botev Vratsa | First League |
| May 7, 2025 | Lokomotiv Sofia 3-0 Botev Vratsa | First League |
| Feb 14, 2025 | Botev Vratsa 0-3 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Lokomotiv Sofia 0-1 Botev Vratsa | First League |
Last archived meeting: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa on May 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Botev Vratsa score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Lokomotiv Sofia score 1.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Vratsa | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Botev Vratsa sit 11th in First League (4 points from 6 matches) and Lokomotiv Sofia sit 14th (2 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Botev Vratsa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
- The Footlab model makes Botev Vratsa the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Lokomotiv Sofia.
- Where and when is Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Sofia played?
- Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Sofia is played on April 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Hristo Botev, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.