Septemvri Sofia vs Cherno More Varna: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Dragalevtsi, Sofia
The Footlab AI model makes Cherno More Varna the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Septemvri Sofia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Cherno More Varna wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Septemvri Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?
A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate Septemvri Sofia (1,622) and Cherno More Varna (1,717).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Septemvri Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Septemvri Sofia
4-2-3-1- 29F. Herard
- 5Y. Baurenski
- 6Pedro Ferreira
- 8B. Penchev
- 33G. Ivanov
- 13K. Önaşçı
- 4M. Hristov
- 26V. Ozornwafor
- 15P. Gospodinov
- 3Sebastian Wade
- 12V. Ivanov
Cherno More Varna
4-2-3-1- 10Celso Sidney
- 11M. Achi
- 99I. Bounaas
- 24David Teles
- 71V. Panayotov
- 29B. Beyhan
- 37V. Kerchev
- 50E. Tombak
- 5L. Squadrone
- 93G. Ventsislavov
- 31D. Hristov
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 10:34 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Septemvri Sofia have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Cherno More Varna have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 2-3 | First League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Levski Sofia(home) | 0-2 | First League |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 2-2 | First League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(away) | 0-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Septemvri Sofia wins, 2 draws, 4 Cherno More Varna wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia 0-3 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 1-1 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Nov 29, 2024 | Septemvri Sofia 1-2 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Jul 29, 2024 | Cherno More Varna 2-0 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Mar 17, 2023 | Cherno More Varna 3-0 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Sep 5, 2022 | Septemvri Sofia 0-0 Cherno More Varna | First League |
Last archived meeting: Septemvri Sofia vs Cherno More Varna on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Septemvri Sofia score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Cherno More Varna score 1.0 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Sofia | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Cherno More Varna | 1.0 | 1.9 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Septemvri Sofia sit 13th in First League (8 points from 11 matches) and Cherno More Varna sit 14th (6 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 8 |
| 14 | Cherno More Varna | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 22 | 6 |
A question about Septemvri Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Septemvri Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?
- The Footlab AI model makes Cherno More Varna the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Septemvri Sofia.
- Where and when is Septemvri Sofia vs Cherno More Varna played?
- Septemvri Sofia vs Cherno More Varna is played on April 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Dragalevtsi, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.