Septemvri Sofia vs Cherno More Varna: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Dragalevtsi, Sofia
The Footlab model makes Cherno More Varna the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Septemvri Sofia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Septemvri Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Septemvri Sofia (1,699) and Cherno More Varna (1,783).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Septemvri Sofia have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Cherno More Varna have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-4 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ludogorets(home) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Spartak Varna(home) | 0-3 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Septemvri Sofia win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Cherno More Varna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia 0-3 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 1-1 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Nov 29, 2024 | Septemvri Sofia 1-2 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Jul 29, 2024 | Cherno More Varna 2-0 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Mar 17, 2023 | Cherno More Varna 3-0 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Sep 5, 2022 | Septemvri Sofia 0-0 Cherno More Varna | First League |
Last archived meeting: Septemvri Sofia vs Cherno More Varna on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Septemvri Sofia score 1.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Cherno More Varna score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Sofia | 1.3 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Cherno More Varna | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Septemvri Sofia sit 8th in First League (7 points from 6 matches) and Cherno More Varna sit 10th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Septemvri Sofia | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 7 |
| 10 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Septemvri Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?
- The Footlab model makes Cherno More Varna the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Septemvri Sofia.
- Where and when is Septemvri Sofia vs Cherno More Varna played?
- Septemvri Sofia vs Cherno More Varna is played on April 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Dragalevtsi, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.