Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov, Sofia
The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv the favourite at 36%, against 31% for a draw and 33% for Slavia Sofia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Slavia Sofia (1,745) and Lokomotiv Plovdiv (1,804).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Slavia Sofia have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Lokomotiv Plovdiv have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 20, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(home) | 0-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 2-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Slavia Sofia win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Slavia Sofia 0-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 Slavia Sofia | First League |
| May 19, 2025 | Slavia Sofia 1-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-1 Slavia Sofia | First League |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Slavia Sofia 2-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Jul 3, 2024 | Slavia Sofia 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv on Feb 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Slavia Sofia score 1.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Lokomotiv Plovdiv score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia | 1.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Slavia Sofia sit 9th in First League (6 points from 5 matches) and Lokomotiv Plovdiv sit 12th (3 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Slavia Sofia | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
- The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv the favourite at 36%, against 31% for a draw and 33% for Slavia Sofia.
- Where and when is Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv played?
- Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv is played on April 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.