Lokomotiv Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Lokomotiv, Sofia
The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv Sofia the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Septemvri Sofia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lokomotiv Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Lokomotiv Sofia (1,721) and Septemvri Sofia (1,699).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lokomotiv Sofia have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Septemvri Sofia have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(away) | 1-3 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 1-3 | First League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Levski Sofia(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(away) | 1-2 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Lokomotiv Sofia win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Septemvri Sofia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia 1-1 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia 3-0 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Septemvri Sofia 1-0 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| May 20, 2025 | Septemvri Sofia 0-2 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Lokomotiv Sofia 1-2 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Aug 12, 2024 | Septemvri Sofia 0-1 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
Last archived meeting: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia on Apr 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lokomotiv Sofia score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Septemvri Sofia score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Septemvri Sofia | 1.3 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lokomotiv Sofia sit 14th in First League (2 points from 5 matches) and Septemvri Sofia sit 8th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Septemvri Sofia | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 7 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lokomotiv Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?
- The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv Sofia the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Septemvri Sofia.
- Where and when is Lokomotiv Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia played?
- Lokomotiv Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia is played on April 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Lokomotiv, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.