Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Botev Vratsa: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv
The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Botev Vratsa. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Botev Vratsa?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Lokomotiv Plovdiv (1,794) and Botev Vratsa (1,749).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lokomotiv Plovdiv have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Botev Vratsa have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(away) | 0-5 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-2 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Botev Vratsa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Botev Vratsa 1-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3-0 Botev Vratsa | First League |
| May 15, 2025 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-3 Botev Vratsa | First League |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 Botev Vratsa | First League |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Botev Vratsa 0-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Botev Vratsa 2-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
Last archived meeting: Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Botev Vratsa score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Botev Vratsa | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv sit 12th in First League (3 points from 6 matches) and Botev Vratsa sit 11th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Botev Vratsa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Botev Vratsa?
- The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Botev Vratsa.
- Where and when is Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Botev Vratsa played?
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Botev Vratsa is played on April 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Lokomotiv, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.