Match

Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz: prediction and stats

UEFA Europa LeagueLeague Stage - 2Kick-off on October 15, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset

BournemouthSturm Graz

The Footlab AI model makes Bournemouth the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Sturm Graz. The most likely score is 2-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?

On Elo ratings, Bournemouth has 2,252 points and Sturm Graz 2,171.

65%22%13%
Bournemouth winDrawSturm Graz win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Bournemouth

4-2-3-1
  1. 9Evanilson
  1. 16M. Tavernier
  2. 37Rayan
  3. 12T. Adams
  4. 10R. Christie
  5. 7D. Brooks
  1. 5J. Hill
  2. 14António Silva
  3. 15A. Smith
  4. 3A. Truffert
  1. 1Đ. Petrović

Known absences

  • A. AdliOut · Calf injury
  • A. ScottOut · Thigh injury
  • D. JebbisonOut · Off the roster
  • E. KroupiOut · Foot injury
  • F. ForsterOut · Off the roster
  • J. AraujoOut · Thigh injury
  • J. KluivertOut · Muscle injury
  • Juanlu SánchezOut · Off the roster
  • M. AaronsOut · Off the roster
  • Veljko MilosavljevićOut · Injured

Sturm Graz

4-2-3-1
  1. 14O. Diakité
  1. 4J. Gorenc Stankovič
  2. 43Jacob Peter Hödl
  3. 19S. Seidl
  4. 39Luca Weinhandl
  5. 78V. Matoshi
  1. 2J. Quarshie
  2. 30P. Koller
  3. 28J. Heil
  4. 27L. Balbo
  1. 53D. Khudyakov

Known absences

  • A. KayomboOut · Off the roster
  • E. SogloOut · Muscle injury
  • F. RózgaOut · Not in squad
  • G. MamageishviliOut · Injured
  • L. GrgićOut · Knee injury
  • N. GeyrhoferOut · Off the roster
  • N. WeiperOut · Not in squad
  • O. KiteishviliOut · Injured
  • S. JattaOut · Shoulder injury
  • S. WłodarczykOut · Off the roster
  • A. VallciDoubtful · Not in squad

Computed on October 13, 2026 at 10:30 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bournemouth have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Sturm Graz have 8, 3 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bournemouth
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Chelsea(away)1-5Premier League
Sep 20, 2026Liverpool(home)0-1Premier League
Sep 17, 2026Real Sociedad(away)2-1UEFA Europa League
Sep 12, 2026Brentford(home)2-2Premier League
Sep 8, 2026Lincoln(home)4-0League Cup
Sturm Graz
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Austria Vienna(away)2-0Bundesliga
Oct 2, 2026Floridsdorfer AC(home)3-1Friendlies Clubs
Sep 20, 2026Red Bull Salzburg(away)0-3Bundesliga
Sep 16, 2026Rennes(home)0-0UEFA Europa League
Sep 13, 2026Lask Linz(home)2-1Bundesliga

How many goals should we expect?

Bournemouth score 2.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Sturm Graz score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Bournemouth2.51.6113/1511/15
Sturm Graz1.50.966/156/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bournemouth sit 10th in UEFA Europa League (3 points from 1 match) and Sturm Graz sit 20th (1 point from 1 match).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
10Bournemouth1100213
20Sturm Graz1010001

A question about Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
The Footlab AI model makes Bournemouth the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Sturm Graz.
Where and when is Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz played?
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz is played on October 15, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Vitality Stadium, in the UEFA Europa League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Bournemouth and Sturm Graz

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