Brackley Town vs Merthyr Town: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 41Kick-off on March 26, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)St. James Park, Brackley, Northamptonshire
The Footlab model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Brackley Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Brackley Town vs Merthyr Town?
Merthyr Town starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (1,851 vs 1,723).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Brackley Town have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Merthyr Town have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Macclesfield(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(home) | 0-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hebburn Town(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AFC Telford United(away) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Maidenhead(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | South Shields(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | AFC Telford United(home) | 2-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Spennymoor Town(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hednesford Town(home) | 2-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Worcester City(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Brackley Town score 0.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Merthyr Town score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brackley Town | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Merthyr Town | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Brackley Town sit 15th in National League - North (4 points from 4 matches) and Merthyr Town sit 12th (5 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Merthyr Town | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| 15 | Brackley Town | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Brackley Town vs Merthyr Town?
- The Footlab model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Brackley Town.
- Where and when is Brackley Town vs Merthyr Town played?
- Brackley Town vs Merthyr Town is played on March 26, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at St. James Park, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.