Newcastle vs Liverpool: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 1Kick-off on August 23, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
The Footlab model makes Newcastle the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 38% for Liverpool. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newcastle vs Liverpool?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Newcastle (2,142) and Liverpool (2,196).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newcastle have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Liverpool have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Everton(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Bristol City(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Como(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 2-4 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-0 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sunderland(home) | 4-2 | Premier League - Summer Series |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Newcastle win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Liverpool win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Liverpool 4-1 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Newcastle 2-3 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Liverpool 1-2 Newcastle | League Cup |
| Feb 26, 2025 | Liverpool 2-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Dec 4, 2024 | Newcastle 3-3 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Jan 1, 2024 | Liverpool 4-2 Newcastle | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Liverpool vs Newcastle on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newcastle score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Liverpool score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Liverpool | 1.5 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newcastle sit 12th in Premier League (49 points from 38 matches) and Liverpool sit 5th (60 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 63 | 53 | 60 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 55 | 49 |
Who is out?
9 reported absence(s) for this match.
- D. BurnNewcastleDoubtful(Injury)
- JoelintonNewcastleOut(Injury)
- L. MileyNewcastleDoubtful(Injury)
- T. LivramentoNewcastleDoubtful(Hamstring Injury)
- C. BradleyLiverpoolOut(Knee Injury)
- C. JonesLiverpoolDoubtful(Hip Injury)
- G. LeoniLiverpoolDoubtful(Knee Injury)
- H. EkitikeLiverpoolOut(Achilles Tendon Injury)
- J. GomezLiverpoolOut(Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newcastle vs Liverpool?
- The Footlab model makes Newcastle the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 38% for Liverpool.
- Where and when is Newcastle vs Liverpool played?
- Newcastle vs Liverpool is played on August 23, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at St. James' Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.