Manchester City vs Bournemouth: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 1Kick-off on August 23, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Etihad Stadium, Manchester
The Footlab model makes Manchester City the favourite at 60%, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Bournemouth. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manchester City vs Bournemouth?
Manchester City starts as the favourite with a 165-point Elo edge (2,353 vs 2,188).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manchester City have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Bournemouth have 7, 7 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 0-3 | Community Shield |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | K-League Stars(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Inter(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Genoa(home) | 10-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | FC Augsburg(away) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | FC St. Pauli(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Manchester City win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Bournemouth win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | Bournemouth 1-1 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Manchester City 3-1 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| May 20, 2025 | Manchester City 3-1 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Bournemouth 1-2 Manchester City | FA Cup |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Bournemouth 2-1 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Bournemouth 0-1 Manchester City | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Bournemouth vs Manchester City on May 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Manchester City score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Bournemouth score 2.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 2.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Bournemouth | 2.4 | 1.1 | 4 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manchester City sit 2nd in Premier League (78 points from 38 matches) and Bournemouth sit 6th (57 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Manchester City | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 77 | 35 | 78 |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 58 | 54 | 57 |
Who is out?
11 reported absence(s) for this match.
- A. AdliBournemouthDoubtful(Injury)
- D. BrooksBournemouthDoubtful(Injury)
- E. KroupiBournemouthOut(Foot Injury)
- J. AraujoBournemouthOut(Thigh Injury)
- R. ChristieBournemouthOut(Red Card)
- T. AdamsBournemouthDoubtful(Injury)
- Veljko MilosavljevićBournemouthDoubtful(Injury)
- J. DokuManchester CityOut(Calf Injury)
- Matheus NunesManchester CityDoubtful(Injury)
- R. McAidooManchester CityOut(Injury)
- SávioManchester CityOut(Illness)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manchester City vs Bournemouth?
- The Footlab model makes Manchester City the favourite at 60%, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Bournemouth.
- Where and when is Manchester City vs Bournemouth played?
- Manchester City vs Bournemouth is played on August 23, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Etihad Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.