Bristol Rovers vs Gillingham: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 42Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Memorial Stadium, Bristol, Gloucestershire
The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Gillingham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bristol Rovers vs Gillingham?
Bristol Rovers starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (1,758 vs 1,652).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bristol Rovers have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Gillingham have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Chelsea U21(home) | 2-2 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 5-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | York(away) | 2-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Walsall(home) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Luton(home) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ebbsfleet United(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Bristol Rovers win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Gillingham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Gillingham 1-2 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Bristol Rovers 0-1 Gillingham | League Two |
| Feb 20, 2021 | Gillingham 2-0 Bristol Rovers | League One |
| Dec 2, 2020 | Bristol Rovers 0-2 Gillingham | League One |
| Sep 17, 2019 | Bristol Rovers 1-1 Gillingham | League One |
| Mar 12, 2019 | Gillingham 0-1 Bristol Rovers | League One |
Last archived meeting: Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bristol Rovers score 2.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Gillingham score 1.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Rovers | 2.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Gillingham | 1.0 | 1.6 | 6 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bristol Rovers sit 10th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Gillingham sit 21st (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| 21 | Gillingham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bristol Rovers vs Gillingham?
- The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Gillingham.
- Where and when is Bristol Rovers vs Gillingham played?
- Bristol Rovers vs Gillingham is played on April 17, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Memorial Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.