Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Memorial Stadium, Bristol, Gloucestershire
The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Swindon Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Bristol Rovers (1,758) and Swindon Town (1,793).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bristol Rovers have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Swindon Town have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 5-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | York(away) | 2-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cheltenham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Northampton(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Leyton Orient(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Bristol Rovers win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Swindon Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Swindon Town 1-1 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Bristol Rovers 0-3 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Oct 8, 2024 | Swindon Town 4-0 Bristol Rovers | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 18, 2022 | Bristol Rovers 3-0 Swindon Town | EFL Trophy |
| Jan 22, 2022 | Swindon Town 1-1 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| Oct 2, 2021 | Bristol Rovers 1-3 Swindon Town | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bristol Rovers score 2.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Swindon Town score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Rovers | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Swindon Town | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bristol Rovers sit 10th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Swindon Town sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Swindon Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town?
- The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Swindon Town.
- Where and when is Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town played?
- Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Memorial Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.