York vs Port Vale: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)LNER Community Stadium, York, North Yorkshire
The Footlab AI model makes York the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Port Vale. The most likely score is 1-1. If York wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,495 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win York vs Port Vale?
York starts as the favourite with a 132-point Elo edge (1,972 vs 1,840).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for York vs Port Vale
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
York
3-4-2-1- 10O. Pearce
- 28O. Banks
- 8A. Hunt
- 30A. Newby
- 7J. Grey
- 12H. Boyes
- 23J. Felix
- 3M. Kitching
- 2R. Fallowfield
- 5Z. Johnson
- 1Alfie Shane McNally
Port Vale
3-5-2- 11O. Hernández
- 36M. Watters
- 6J. Lawrence-Gabriel
- 10K. Dempsey
- 3J. Headley
- 8B. Garrity
- 33G. Hall
- 5C. Hall
- 25C. Humphreys
- 4J. Moon
- 20M. Maroši
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 07:33 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, York have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Port Vale have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Northampton(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Gillingham(home) | 3-0 | League Two |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Rotherham(home) | 1-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Chesterfield(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Newcastle United U21(home) | 1-3 | EFL Trophy |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Grimsby(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Mansfield Town(home) | 2-0 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Chesterfield(away) | 1-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Walsall(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 York wins, 1 draw, 1 Port Vale win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2013 | York 0-2 Port Vale | League Two |
| Nov 17, 2012 | Port Vale 2-2 York | League Two |
How many goals should we expect?
York score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Port Vale score 0.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| York | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Port Vale | 0.8 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
York sit 5th in League Two (15 points from 9 matches) and Port Vale sit 22nd (8 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | York | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 15 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 8 |
A question about York vs Port Vale?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for York vs Port Vale?
- The Footlab AI model makes York the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Port Vale.
- Where and when is York vs Port Vale played?
- York vs Port Vale is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at LNER Community Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.