Swindon Town vs Northampton: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 34Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The County Ground, Swindon, Wiltshire
The Footlab model makes Swindon Town the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Northampton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Swindon Town vs Northampton?
Swindon Town starts as the favourite with a 132-point Elo edge (1,793 vs 1,662).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Swindon Town have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Northampton have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cheltenham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Northampton(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Leyton Orient(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Brighton U21(home) | 0-3 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Swindon Town win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Northampton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Northampton 0-0 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Dec 29, 2022 | Northampton 1-2 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Oct 1, 2022 | Swindon Town 1-2 Northampton | League Two |
| Jan 1, 2022 | Swindon Town 5-2 Northampton | League Two |
| Sep 18, 2021 | Northampton 1-1 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Feb 27, 2021 | Swindon Town 2-1 Northampton | League One |
Last archived meeting: Northampton vs Swindon Town on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Swindon Town score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Northampton score 0.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon Town | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Northampton | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Swindon Town sit 7th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Northampton sit 18th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Swindon Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 18 | Northampton | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Swindon Town vs Northampton?
- The Footlab model makes Swindon Town the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Northampton.
- Where and when is Swindon Town vs Northampton played?
- Swindon Town vs Northampton is played on March 6, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The County Ground, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.