Caerphilly Athletic vs Chepstow Town: prediction and stats
Welsh CupRound of 64Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Caerphilly Athletic the favourite at 43%, against 22% for a draw and 35% for Chepstow Town. The most likely score is 1-1. If Caerphilly Athletic wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caerphilly Athletic vs Chepstow Town?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Caerphilly Athletic (1,560) and Chepstow Town (1,609).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Caerphilly Athletic vs Chepstow Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Caerphilly Athletic
Not enough data to predict the Caerphilly Athletic lineup.
Chepstow Town
Not enough data to predict the Chepstow Town lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 02:42 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 14 matches in all competitions, Caerphilly Athletic have 4 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Chepstow Town have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Swansea University(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(away) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2024 | Pill AFC(home) | 0-1 | Welsh Cup |
| Nov 11, 2023 | South Gower(away) | 2-2 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 14, 2023 | Abercarn United(home) | 4-0 | Welsh Cup |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Pill AFC(home) | 7-0 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 8, 2022 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-2 | Welsh Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Caerphilly Athletic score 1.4 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 14; Chepstow Town score 1.8 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerphilly Athletic | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2 | 10/14 | 11/14 |
| Chepstow Town | 1.8 | 1.8 | 5 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 14 matches in all competitions.
A question about Caerphilly Athletic vs Chepstow Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caerphilly Athletic vs Chepstow Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caerphilly Athletic the favourite at 43%, against 22% for a draw and 35% for Chepstow Town.
- Where and when is Caerphilly Athletic vs Chepstow Town played?
- Caerphilly Athletic vs Chepstow Town is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Welsh Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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