Carmarthen Town vs Caerphilly Athletic: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 12Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)LHP Stadium, Caerfyrddin / Carmarthen, Dyfed
The Footlab AI model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Caerphilly Athletic. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Carmarthen Town vs Caerphilly Athletic?
On Elo ratings, Carmarthen Town has 1,649 points and Caerphilly Athletic 1,560.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Carmarthen Town vs Caerphilly Athletic
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Carmarthen Town
Not enough data to predict the Carmarthen Town lineup.
Caerphilly Athletic
Not enough data to predict the Caerphilly Athletic lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:40 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Carmarthen Town have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Caerphilly Athletic have 4, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(home) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Swansea University(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(away) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Carmarthen Town score 2.2 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Caerphilly Athletic score 1.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmarthen Town | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
| Caerphilly Athletic | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2 | 10/14 | 11/14 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Carmarthen Town sit 7th in FAW Championship (15 points from 10 matches) and Caerphilly Athletic sit 11th (11 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Carmarthen Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 21 | 15 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 11 |
A question about Carmarthen Town vs Caerphilly Athletic?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Carmarthen Town vs Caerphilly Athletic?
- The Footlab AI model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Caerphilly Athletic.
- Where and when is Carmarthen Town vs Caerphilly Athletic played?
- Carmarthen Town vs Caerphilly Athletic is played on October 23, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at LHP Stadium, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 23, 2026Newport CityvsPontypridd Town
- Oct 23, 2026llanelli AFCvsAfan Lido
- Oct 23, 2026Trethomas BluebirdsvsCardiff Draconians
- Oct 23, 2026Caerau (Ely)vsLlantwit Major
- Oct 24, 2026Baglan DragonsvsAberystwyth Town
- Oct 24, 2026Swansea UniversityvsTreowen Stars
- Oct 24, 2026Pontardawe TownvsYnyshir Albions