Cagliari vs Bologna: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Unipol Domus, Cagliari
The Footlab model makes Bologna the favourite at 36%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Cagliari. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cagliari vs Bologna?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Cagliari (1,983) and Bologna (2,069).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cagliari have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Bologna have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Parma(away) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Arezzo(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nice(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Union Berlin(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Modena(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pisa(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cambuur(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Iraklis 1908(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | 1. FC Heidenheim(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Cagliari win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Bologna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Bologna 0-0 Cagliari | Serie A |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Cagliari 0-2 Bologna | Serie A |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Bologna 2-1 Cagliari | Serie A |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Cagliari 0-2 Bologna | Serie A |
| Jan 14, 2024 | Cagliari 2-1 Bologna | Serie A |
| Sep 2, 2023 | Bologna 2-1 Cagliari | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Cagliari score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Bologna score 1.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 0.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Bologna | 1.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cagliari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cagliari vs Bologna?
- The Footlab model makes Bologna the favourite at 36%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Cagliari.
- Where and when is Cagliari vs Bologna played?
- Cagliari vs Bologna is played on October 25, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Unipol Domus, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.