Napoli vs AS Roma: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli
The Footlab AI model makes Napoli the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for AS Roma. The most likely score is 1-1. If Napoli wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Napoli vs AS Roma?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Napoli (2,067) and AS Roma (2,123).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Napoli vs AS Roma
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Napoli
3-4-2-1- 19R. Højlund
- 22G. Di Lorenzo
- 11K. De Bruyne
- 68S. Lobotka
- 21M. Politano
- 70N. Lang
- 37L. Spinazzola
- 13Amir Rrahmani
- 16Rafa Marín
- 5B. Badiashile
- 1A. Meret
AS Roma
3-4-2-1- 14D. Malen
- 21P. Dybala
- 43Wesley
- 17M. Koné
- 20N. Molina
- 15M. de Roon
- 4B. Cristante
- 22Hermoso
- 23G. Mancini
- 5E. Ndicka
- 95P. Gollini
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 02:53 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Napoli have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; AS Roma have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Villarreal(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Frosinone(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fiorentina(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Bologna(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 3-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Como(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Inter(home) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Torino(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Napoli wins, 3 draws, 1 AS Roma win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Napoli 2-2 AS Roma | Serie A |
| Nov 30, 2025 | AS Roma 0-1 Napoli | Serie A |
| Feb 2, 2025 | AS Roma 1-1 Napoli | Serie A |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Napoli 1-0 AS Roma | Serie A |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Napoli 2-2 AS Roma | Serie A |
| Dec 23, 2023 | AS Roma 2-0 Napoli | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Napoli score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; AS Roma score 2.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 1.8 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| AS Roma | 2.1 | 1.4 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Napoli sit 8th in Serie A (10 points from 6 matches) and AS Roma sit 3rd (14 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 10 |
A question about Napoli vs AS Roma?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Napoli vs AS Roma?
- The Footlab AI model makes Napoli the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for AS Roma.
- Where and when is Napoli vs AS Roma played?
- Napoli vs AS Roma is played on October 25, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.