Campos AA vs Serra Macaense: prediction and stats
Carioca B2Group Stage - 9Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Ângelo de Carvalho, Campos dos Goytacazes, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Campos AA the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Serra Macaense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Campos AA vs Serra Macaense?
A very open match: only 0 Elo points separate Campos AA (1,587) and Serra Macaense (1,587).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Campos AA have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Serra Macaense have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | Cardoso Moreira(home) | 1-2 | Carioca C |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Cardoso Moreira(away) | 1-4 | Carioca C |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Uniao Central(away) | 0-1 | Carioca C |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Uni Souza(home) | 3-1 | Carioca C |
| Jun 7, 2026 | EC Resende(away) | 4-0 | Carioca C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | SE Belford Roxo(away) | 0-2 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Macaé(home) | 2-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Rio de Janeiro(away) | 2-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Goytacaz(home) | 1-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Santa Cruz RJ(away) | 0-0 | Carioca B2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Campos AA win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Serra Macaense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2020 | Serra Macaense 3-1 Campos AA | Carioca - 2 |
| Jun 1, 2019 | Campos AA 1-0 Serra Macaense | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Serra Macaense vs Campos AA on Nov 4, 2020
How many goals should we expect?
Campos AA score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Serra Macaense score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Campos AA | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Serra Macaense | 1.1 | 0.7 | 9 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Campos AA vs Serra Macaense?
- The Footlab model makes Campos AA the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Serra Macaense.
- Where and when is Campos AA vs Serra Macaense played?
- Campos AA vs Serra Macaense is played on October 18, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Ângelo de Carvalho, in the Carioca B2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.