Newport City vs Cardiff Draconians: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 17Kick-off on December 4, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Newport Stadium, Casnewydd
The Footlab model makes Newport City the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Cardiff Draconians. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newport City vs Cardiff Draconians?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Newport City (1,536) and Cardiff Draconians (1,527).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newport City have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Cardiff Draconians have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(away) | 4-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(away) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Newport City win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Cardiff Draconians win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians 0-1 Newport City | FAW Championship |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Newport City 2-1 Cardiff Draconians | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Cardiff Draconians vs Newport City on Mar 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newport City score 1.3 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Cardiff Draconians score 1.7 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport City | 1.3 | 2.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
| Cardiff Draconians | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newport City sit 7th in FAW Championship (6 points from 4 matches) and Cardiff Draconians sit 10th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Newport City | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newport City vs Cardiff Draconians?
- The Footlab model makes Newport City the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Cardiff Draconians.
- Where and when is Newport City vs Cardiff Draconians played?
- Newport City vs Cardiff Draconians is played on December 4, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Newport Stadium, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.