Cardiff Draconians vs Caerphilly Athletic: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 20Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Cardiff Draconians the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Caerphilly Athletic. The most likely score is 1-1. If Cardiff Draconians wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,449 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cardiff Draconians vs Caerphilly Athletic?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Cardiff Draconians (1,599) and Caerphilly Athletic (1,561).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Cardiff Draconians vs Caerphilly Athletic
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Cardiff Draconians
Not enough data to predict the Cardiff Draconians lineup.
Caerphilly Athletic
Not enough data to predict the Caerphilly Athletic lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 01:06 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cardiff Draconians have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Caerphilly Athletic have 4, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 22, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Swansea University(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(away) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Cardiff Draconians wins, 1 draw, 0 Caerphilly Athletic wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic 0-0 Cardiff Draconians | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Caerphilly Athletic vs Cardiff Draconians on Aug 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cardiff Draconians score 1.8 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Caerphilly Athletic score 1.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff Draconians | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Caerphilly Athletic | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2 | 10/14 | 11/14 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cardiff Draconians sit 13th in FAW Championship (9 points from 8 matches) and Caerphilly Athletic sit 11th (11 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 11 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 9 |
A question about Cardiff Draconians vs Caerphilly Athletic?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cardiff Draconians vs Caerphilly Athletic?
- The Footlab AI model makes Cardiff Draconians the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Caerphilly Athletic.
- Where and when is Cardiff Draconians vs Caerphilly Athletic played?
- Cardiff Draconians vs Caerphilly Athletic is played on January 2, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.