Cardiff Draconians vs Caerphilly Athletic: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 20Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Cardiff Draconians the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Caerphilly Athletic. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cardiff Draconians vs Caerphilly Athletic?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Cardiff Draconians (1,549) and Caerphilly Athletic (1,507).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cardiff Draconians have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Caerphilly Athletic have 2, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(away) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(home) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(away) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Caldicot Town(home) | 1-3 | Welsh Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Cardiff Draconians win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Caerphilly Athletic win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic 0-0 Cardiff Draconians | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Caerphilly Athletic vs Cardiff Draconians on Aug 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cardiff Draconians score 1.7 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Caerphilly Athletic score 1.3 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff Draconians | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Caerphilly Athletic | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1 | 5/8 | 6/8 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cardiff Draconians sit 10th in FAW Championship (4 points from 4 matches) and Caerphilly Athletic sit 12th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 12 | Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cardiff Draconians vs Caerphilly Athletic?
- The Footlab model makes Cardiff Draconians the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Caerphilly Athletic.
- Where and when is Cardiff Draconians vs Caerphilly Athletic played?
- Cardiff Draconians vs Caerphilly Athletic is played on January 2, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.