Baglan Dragons vs Llantwit Major: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 20Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, Port Talbot
The Footlab AI model makes Llantwit Major the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Baglan Dragons. The most likely score is 1-1. If Llantwit Major wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,422 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Baglan Dragons vs Llantwit Major?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Baglan Dragons (1,548) and Llantwit Major (1,562).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Baglan Dragons vs Llantwit Major
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Baglan Dragons
Not enough data to predict the Baglan Dragons lineup.
Llantwit Major
Not enough data to predict the Llantwit Major lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 09:11 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Baglan Dragons have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Llantwit Major have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Baglan Dragons wins, 3 draws, 1 Llantwit Major win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Llantwit Major 0-1 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Llantwit Major 0-0 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Baglan Dragons 1-1 Llantwit Major | FAW Championship |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Llantwit Major 2-0 Baglan Dragons | Welsh Cup |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Llantwit Major 0-1 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Baglan Dragons 0-0 Llantwit Major | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Baglan Dragons score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Llantwit Major score 1.2 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baglan Dragons | 0.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Llantwit Major | 1.2 | 2.5 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Baglan Dragons sit 5th in FAW Championship (17 points from 11 matches) and Llantwit Major sit 15th (8 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 17 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 8 |
A question about Baglan Dragons vs Llantwit Major?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Baglan Dragons vs Llantwit Major?
- The Footlab AI model makes Llantwit Major the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Baglan Dragons.
- Where and when is Baglan Dragons vs Llantwit Major played?
- Baglan Dragons vs Llantwit Major is played on January 2, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.