Baglan Dragons vs Llantwit Major: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 20Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, Port Talbot
The Footlab model makes Baglan Dragons the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Llantwit Major. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Baglan Dragons vs Llantwit Major?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Baglan Dragons (1,474) and Llantwit Major (1,485).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Baglan Dragons have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Llantwit Major have 4, 1 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Llantwit Major(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-5 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 0-5 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Cambrian & Clydach(home) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Baglan Dragons win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Llantwit Major win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Llantwit Major 0-1 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Llantwit Major 0-0 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Baglan Dragons 1-1 Llantwit Major | FAW Championship |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Llantwit Major 2-0 Baglan Dragons | Welsh Cup |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Llantwit Major 0-1 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Baglan Dragons 0-0 Llantwit Major | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Baglan Dragons score 0.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Llantwit Major score 1.5 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baglan Dragons | 0.5 | 2.1 | 4 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Llantwit Major | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Baglan Dragons sit 5th in FAW Championship (7 points from 4 matches) and Llantwit Major sit 16th (0 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Baglan Dragons vs Llantwit Major?
- The Footlab model makes Baglan Dragons the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Llantwit Major.
- Where and when is Baglan Dragons vs Llantwit Major played?
- Baglan Dragons vs Llantwit Major is played on January 2, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.