Aberystwyth Town vs Carmarthen Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 20Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Park Avenue, Aberystwyth, Ceredigion
The Footlab model makes Aberystwyth Town the favourite at 40%, against 23% for a draw and 37% for Carmarthen Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aberystwyth Town vs Carmarthen Town?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Aberystwyth Town (1,579) and Carmarthen Town (1,616).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aberystwyth Town have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Carmarthen Town have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 5-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 5-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Cwmbran Celtic(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 4-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Aberystwyth Town win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Carmarthen Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town 1-1 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Carmarthen Town 1-0 Aberystwyth Town | FAW Championship |
| Oct 18, 2019 | Carmarthen Town 0-0 Aberystwyth Town | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2019 | Aberystwyth Town 3-2 Carmarthen Town | Premier League |
| Apr 26, 2019 | Carmarthen Town 6-2 Aberystwyth Town | Premier League |
| Mar 8, 2019 | Aberystwyth Town 3-2 Carmarthen Town | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Aberystwyth Town vs Carmarthen Town on Jan 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aberystwyth Town score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Carmarthen Town score 2.5 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberystwyth Town | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Carmarthen Town | 2.5 | 2.0 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aberystwyth Town sit 6th in FAW Championship (6 points from 3 matches) and Carmarthen Town sit 4th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Carmarthen Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aberystwyth Town vs Carmarthen Town?
- The Footlab model makes Aberystwyth Town the favourite at 40%, against 23% for a draw and 37% for Carmarthen Town.
- Where and when is Aberystwyth Town vs Carmarthen Town played?
- Aberystwyth Town vs Carmarthen Town is played on January 2, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Park Avenue, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.