Aberystwyth Town vs Carmarthen Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 20Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Park Avenue, Aberystwyth, Ceredigion
The Footlab AI model makes Aberystwyth Town the favourite at 51%, against 22% for a draw and 27% for Carmarthen Town. The most likely score is 1-1. If Aberystwyth Town wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 3,202 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aberystwyth Town vs Carmarthen Town?
On Elo ratings, Aberystwyth Town has 1,672 points and Carmarthen Town 1,611.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aberystwyth Town vs Carmarthen Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aberystwyth Town
Not enough data to predict the Aberystwyth Town lineup.
Carmarthen Town
Not enough data to predict the Carmarthen Town lineup.
Computed on October 24, 2026 at 05:25 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aberystwyth Town have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Carmarthen Town have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Prestatyn Town(home) | 5-1 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(home) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 4-5 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Aberystwyth Town wins, 2 draws, 2 Carmarthen Town wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town 1-1 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Carmarthen Town 1-0 Aberystwyth Town | FAW Championship |
| Oct 18, 2019 | Carmarthen Town 0-0 Aberystwyth Town | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2019 | Aberystwyth Town 3-2 Carmarthen Town | Premier League |
| Apr 26, 2019 | Carmarthen Town 6-2 Aberystwyth Town | Premier League |
| Mar 8, 2019 | Aberystwyth Town 3-2 Carmarthen Town | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Aberystwyth Town vs Carmarthen Town on Jan 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aberystwyth Town score 2.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Carmarthen Town score 2.3 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberystwyth Town | 2.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Carmarthen Town | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1 | 13/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aberystwyth Town sit 3rd in FAW Championship (19 points from 9 matches) and Carmarthen Town sit 8th (15 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 19 |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 24 | 15 |
A question about Aberystwyth Town vs Carmarthen Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aberystwyth Town vs Carmarthen Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aberystwyth Town the favourite at 51%, against 22% for a draw and 27% for Carmarthen Town.
- Where and when is Aberystwyth Town vs Carmarthen Town played?
- Aberystwyth Town vs Carmarthen Town is played on January 2, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Park Avenue, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.