Where and when is Ynyshir Albions vs Caerau (Ely) played?

Ynyshir Albions vs Caerau (Ely) is played on January 2, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Ynyshir Oval, in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Ynyshir Albions vs Caerau (Ely): prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 20Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Ynyshir Oval, Porth

Ynyshir Albions

Caerau (Ely)

The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for Ynyshir Albions. The most likely score is 1-2.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Ynyshir Albions vs Caerau (Ely)?

Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 207-point Elo edge (1,656 vs 1,450).

Ynyshir Albions win23 %

Draw22 %

Caerau (Ely) win55 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ynyshir Albions have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Caerau (Ely) have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Ynyshir Albions
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Caerphilly Athletic(away)	1-2	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Caerau (Ely)(away)	1-1	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Cardiff Draconians(home)	1-0	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Aberystwyth Town(home)	0-0	FAW Championship
Apr 4, 2026	Caerau (Ely)(away)	0-2	FAW Championship

Caerau (Ely)
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Swansea University(home)	1-5	FAW Championship
Aug 14, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(away)	4-2	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Ynyshir Albions(home)	1-1	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Carmarthen Town(away)	3-4	FAW Championship
Jul 25, 2026	Barnstaple Town(home)	4-4	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Ynyshir Albions win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Caerau (Ely) win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 7, 2026	Caerau (Ely) 1-1 Ynyshir Albions	FAW Championship
Apr 4, 2026	Caerau (Ely) 2-0 Ynyshir Albions	FAW Championship
Jul 26, 2025	Ynyshir Albions 1-4 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship

Last archived meeting: Caerau (Ely) vs Ynyshir Albions on Aug 7, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Ynyshir Albions score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Ynyshir Albions	1.1	1.4	5	8/15	7/15
Caerau (Ely)	2.1	1.5	6	8/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Ynyshir Albions sit 9th in FAW Championship (4 points from 3 matches) and Caerau (Ely) sit 11th (4 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
9	Ynyshir Albions	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
11	Caerau (Ely)	4	1	1	2	9	12	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Ynyshir Albions vs Caerau (Ely)?: The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for Ynyshir Albions.
Where and when is Ynyshir Albions vs Caerau (Ely) played?: Ynyshir Albions vs Caerau (Ely) is played on January 2, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Ynyshir Oval, in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.