Ynyshir Albions vs Caerau (Ely): prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 20Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Ynyshir Oval, Porth
The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Ynyshir Albions. The most likely score is 1-1. If Caerau (Ely) wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ynyshir Albions vs Caerau (Ely)?
Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 181-point Elo edge (1,741 vs 1,560).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ynyshir Albions vs Caerau (Ely)
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ynyshir Albions
Not enough data to predict the Ynyshir Albions lineup.
Caerau (Ely)
Not enough data to predict the Caerau (Ely) lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 10:45 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ynyshir Albions have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Caerau (Ely) have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 6-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Ynyshir Albions wins, 1 draw, 2 Caerau (Ely) wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caerau (Ely) 1-1 Ynyshir Albions | FAW Championship |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Caerau (Ely) 2-0 Ynyshir Albions | FAW Championship |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Ynyshir Albions 1-4 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Caerau (Ely) vs Ynyshir Albions on Aug 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ynyshir Albions score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ynyshir Albions | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Caerau (Ely) | 2.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ynyshir Albions sit 6th in FAW Championship (16 points from 9 matches) and Caerau (Ely) sit 4th (19 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 19 |
| 6 | Ynyshir Albions | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 9 | 16 |
A question about Ynyshir Albions vs Caerau (Ely)?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ynyshir Albions vs Caerau (Ely)?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Ynyshir Albions.
- Where and when is Ynyshir Albions vs Caerau (Ely) played?
- Ynyshir Albions vs Caerau (Ely) is played on January 2, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Ynyshir Oval, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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