Pontypridd Town vs Treowen Stars: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 20Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)USW Sports Park, Treforest, Pontypridd
The Footlab model makes Pontypridd Town the favourite at 47%, against 21% for a draw and 32% for Treowen Stars. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pontypridd Town vs Treowen Stars?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate Pontypridd Town (1,600) and Treowen Stars (1,581).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pontypridd Town have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Treowen Stars have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(home) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Pontypridd Town win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Treowen Stars win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Treowen Stars 2-3 Pontypridd Town | FAW Championship |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Treowen Stars 2-2 Pontypridd Town | FAW Championship |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Treowen Stars 1-1 Pontypridd Town | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Pontypridd Town 5-2 Treowen Stars | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Treowen Stars vs Pontypridd Town on Aug 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Pontypridd Town score 2.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Treowen Stars score 2.0 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontypridd Town | 2.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Treowen Stars | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pontypridd Town sit 2nd in FAW Championship (12 points from 4 matches) and Treowen Stars sit 3rd (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pontypridd Town vs Treowen Stars?
- The Footlab model makes Pontypridd Town the favourite at 47%, against 21% for a draw and 32% for Treowen Stars.
- Where and when is Pontypridd Town vs Treowen Stars played?
- Pontypridd Town vs Treowen Stars is played on January 2, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at USW Sports Park, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.