Trethomas Bluebirds vs Newport City: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 20Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)CCB Centre for Sporting Excellence, Ystrad Mynach, Caerphilly
The Footlab model makes Trethomas Bluebirds the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Newport City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Trethomas Bluebirds vs Newport City?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Trethomas Bluebirds (1,490) and Newport City (1,536).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Trethomas Bluebirds have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Newport City have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Barry Town(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(away) | 4-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Trethomas Bluebirds win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Newport City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds 1-0 Newport City | FAW Championship |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Newport City 1-1 Trethomas Bluebirds | FAW Championship |
| Jan 3, 2025 | Newport City 1-2 Trethomas Bluebirds | FAW Championship |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Trethomas Bluebirds 2-1 Newport City | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Trethomas Bluebirds vs Newport City on Mar 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Trethomas Bluebirds score 1.5 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Newport City score 1.3 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trethomas Bluebirds | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Newport City | 1.3 | 2.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Trethomas Bluebirds sit 14th in FAW Championship (2 points from 4 matches) and Newport City sit 7th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Newport City | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
| 14 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Trethomas Bluebirds vs Newport City?
- The Footlab model makes Trethomas Bluebirds the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Newport City.
- Where and when is Trethomas Bluebirds vs Newport City played?
- Trethomas Bluebirds vs Newport City is played on January 2, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at CCB Centre for Sporting Excellence, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.