Swansea vs Cardiff: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 18Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
The Footlab AI model makes Swansea the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Cardiff. The most likely score is 1-1. If Swansea wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,788 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Swansea vs Cardiff?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Swansea (2,043) and Cardiff (2,012).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Swansea vs Cardiff
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Swansea
4-3-3- 49M. Yeo
- 30Joseph Okopu
- 33A. Idah
- 4J. Fulton
- 6M. Stamenić
- 17Gonçalo Franco
- 14J. Tymon
- 5B. Cabango
- 23S. Welsh
- 26F. Lissah
- 22L. Vigouroux
Cardiff
4-2-3-1- 8J. Moylan
- 18A. Robertson
- 11O. Tanner
- 27J. Colwill
- 45Cian Ashford
- 16C. Willock
- 3J. Bagan
- 4G. Osho
- 38P. Ng
- 5K. Bielik
- 1N. Trott
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 03:49 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Swansea have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Cardiff have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | West Ham(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Millwall(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Norwich(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Lincoln(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Burnley(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Middlesbrough(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Watford(home) | 5-1 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Blackburn(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bolton(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Swansea wins, 1 draw, 2 Cardiff wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | Cardiff 3-0 Swansea | Championship |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Swansea 1-1 Cardiff | Championship |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Swansea 2-0 Cardiff | Championship |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Cardiff 2-0 Swansea | Championship |
| Apr 1, 2023 | Cardiff 2-3 Swansea | Championship |
| Oct 23, 2022 | Swansea 2-0 Cardiff | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Swansea score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Cardiff score 2.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea | 1.3 | 0.8 | 7 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Cardiff | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0 | 13/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Swansea sit 1st in Championship (23 points from 11 matches) and Cardiff sit 19th (11 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 23 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 11 |
A question about Swansea vs Cardiff?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Swansea vs Cardiff?
- The Footlab AI model makes Swansea the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Cardiff.
- Where and when is Swansea vs Cardiff played?
- Swansea vs Cardiff is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Swansea.com Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.