Carlisle vs AFC Fylde: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 33Kick-off on February 16, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Brunton Park, Carlisle, Cumbria
The Footlab model makes Carlisle the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for AFC Fylde. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Carlisle vs AFC Fylde?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Carlisle (1,901) and AFC Fylde (1,918).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Carlisle have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; AFC Fylde have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AFC Hornchurch(home) | 4-1 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 1-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Worthing(home) | 2-3 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Derby County U21(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Salford City(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Woking(away) | 2-3 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tamworth(away) | 2-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Wealdstone(home) | 2-2 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rylands(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Morecambe(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Carlisle win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 AFC Fylde win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2025 | AFC Fylde 0-2 Carlisle | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: AFC Fylde vs Carlisle on Jul 19, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Carlisle score 2.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; AFC Fylde score 1.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | 2.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| AFC Fylde | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Carlisle sit 12th in National League (4 points from 3 matches) and AFC Fylde sit 13th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Carlisle | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | AFC Fylde | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Carlisle vs AFC Fylde?
- The Footlab model makes Carlisle the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for AFC Fylde.
- Where and when is Carlisle vs AFC Fylde played?
- Carlisle vs AFC Fylde is played on February 16, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Brunton Park, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.