Carmarthen Town vs Newport City: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 27Kick-off on March 27, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)LHP Stadium, Caerfyrddin / Carmarthen, Dyfed
The Footlab model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 55%, against 21% for a draw and 24% for Newport City. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Carmarthen Town vs Newport City?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Carmarthen Town (1,594) and Newport City (1,536).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Carmarthen Town have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Newport City have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 4-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(away) | 4-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Carmarthen Town win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Newport City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newport City 1-2 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Newport City 4-4 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Carmarthen Town 1-0 Newport City | FAW Championship |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Newport City 3-0 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Carmarthen Town 1-0 Newport City | FAW Championship |
| Oct 8, 2022 | Newport City 0-2 Carmarthen Town | Welsh Cup |
Last archived meeting: Newport City vs Carmarthen Town on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Carmarthen Town score 2.5 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Newport City score 1.3 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmarthen Town | 2.5 | 2.0 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Newport City | 1.3 | 2.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Carmarthen Town sit 4th in FAW Championship (9 points from 4 matches) and Newport City sit 7th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Carmarthen Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| 7 | Newport City | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Carmarthen Town vs Newport City?
- The Footlab model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 55%, against 21% for a draw and 24% for Newport City.
- Where and when is Carmarthen Town vs Newport City played?
- Carmarthen Town vs Newport City is played on March 27, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at LHP Stadium, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 26, 2027Afan Lidovsllanelli AFC
- Mar 27, 2027Caerau (Ely)vsAberystwyth Town
- Mar 27, 2027Swansea UniversityvsBaglan Dragons
- Mar 27, 2027Cardiff DraconiansvsTreowen Stars
- Mar 27, 2027Pontardawe TownvsLlantwit Major
- Mar 27, 2027Ynyshir AlbionsvsCaerphilly Athletic
- Mar 27, 2027Trethomas BluebirdsvsPontypridd Town