Caerau (Ely) vs Aberystwyth Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 27Kick-off on March 27, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Cwrt-yr-Ala, Caerdydd
The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Aberystwyth Town. The most likely score is 1-1. If Caerau (Ely) wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,449 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs Aberystwyth Town?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Caerau (Ely) (1,741) and Aberystwyth Town (1,672).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Caerau (Ely) vs Aberystwyth Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Caerau (Ely)
Not enough data to predict the Caerau (Ely) lineup.
Aberystwyth Town
Not enough data to predict the Aberystwyth Town lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 02:49 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caerau (Ely) have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Aberystwyth Town have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 4-0 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 Caerau (Ely) wins, 0 draws, 0 Aberystwyth Town wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town 0-1 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town 0-4 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Caerau (Ely) 1-0 Aberystwyth Town | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely) on Oct 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Aberystwyth Town score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerau (Ely) | 2.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Aberystwyth Town | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caerau (Ely) sit 4th in FAW Championship (19 points from 10 matches) and Aberystwyth Town sit 3rd (19 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 19 |
A question about Caerau (Ely) vs Aberystwyth Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caerau (Ely) vs Aberystwyth Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Aberystwyth Town.
- Where and when is Caerau (Ely) vs Aberystwyth Town played?
- Caerau (Ely) vs Aberystwyth Town is played on March 27, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Cwrt-yr-Ala, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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