Ceara vs America Mineiro: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 37Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Fortaleza, Ceará
The Footlab model makes Ceara the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for America Mineiro. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ceara vs America Mineiro?
Ceara starts as the favourite with a 124-point Elo edge (1,849 vs 1,725).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ceara have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; America Mineiro have 2, 2 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Londrina(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Nautico Recife(away) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cuiaba(home) | 1-3 | Serie B |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ponte Preta(home) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | São Bernardo(away) | 4-3 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Sport Recife(away) | 0-3 | Serie B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Novorizontino(away) | 0-3 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 1-3 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Botafogo SP(away) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Goias(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Ceara win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 America Mineiro win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 2026 | America Mineiro 1-1 Ceara | Serie B |
| Nov 19, 2024 | Ceara 1-0 America Mineiro | Serie B |
| Jul 28, 2024 | America Mineiro 2-2 Ceara | Serie B |
| Oct 1, 2022 | Ceara 1-2 America Mineiro | Serie A |
| Jun 8, 2022 | America Mineiro 0-2 Ceara | Serie A |
| Dec 5, 2021 | Ceara 0-0 America Mineiro | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: America Mineiro vs Ceara on Jul 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ceara score 1.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; America Mineiro score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| America Mineiro | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ceara sit 17th in Serie B (28 points from 24 matches) and America Mineiro sit 19th (11 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Ceara | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 25 | 30 | 28 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 24 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 16 | 42 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ceara vs America Mineiro?
- The Footlab model makes Ceara the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for America Mineiro.
- Where and when is Ceara vs America Mineiro played?
- Ceara vs America Mineiro is played on November 7, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.