Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 37Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi, Novo Horizonte, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Novorizontino the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Fortaleza EC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Novorizontino (1,943) and Fortaleza EC (1,942).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Novorizontino have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Fortaleza EC have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 4-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | America Mineiro(home) | 3-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | CRB(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Juventude(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Londrina(away) | 4-1 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Criciuma(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | São Bernardo(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Juventude(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cuiaba(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Palmeiras(home) | 3-2 | Copa Do Brasil |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Novorizontino win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Fortaleza EC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Fortaleza EC 1-0 Novorizontino | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: Fortaleza EC vs Novorizontino on Jul 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Novorizontino score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Fortaleza EC score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino | 1.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Fortaleza EC | 1.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Novorizontino sit 4th in Serie B (40 points from 24 matches) and Fortaleza EC sit 5th (40 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Novorizontino | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 39 | 21 | 40 |
| 5 | Fortaleza EC | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 27 | 21 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC?
- The Footlab model makes Novorizontino the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Fortaleza EC.
- Where and when is Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC played?
- Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC is played on November 7, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.