Cesena vs Palermo: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Cesena
The Footlab model makes Palermo the favourite at 36%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Cesena. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cesena vs Palermo?
Palermo starts as the favourite with a 165-point Elo edge (1,968 vs 1,802).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cesena have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Palermo have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sampdoria(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 0-3 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Forli(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Vis Pesaro(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fossombrone(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Juve Stabia(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Lecce(home) | 2-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Iraklis 1908(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Cesena win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Palermo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Palermo 2-0 Cesena | Serie B |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Cesena 1-1 Palermo | Serie B |
| May 4, 2025 | Cesena 2-1 Palermo | Serie B |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Palermo 0-0 Cesena | Serie B |
| May 12, 2018 | Palermo 0-0 Cesena | Serie B |
| Dec 21, 2017 | Cesena 1-1 Palermo | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Cesena score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Palermo score 1.6 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Palermo | 1.6 | 1.0 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cesena sit 10th in Serie B (1 points from 1 matches) and Palermo sit 8th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Palermo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Cesena | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cesena vs Palermo?
- The Footlab model makes Palermo the favourite at 36%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Cesena.
- Where and when is Cesena vs Palermo played?
- Cesena vs Palermo is played on December 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.