Padova vs Cesena: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Euganeo, Padova
The Footlab model makes Padova the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Cesena. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Padova vs Cesena?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Padova (1,835) and Cesena (1,802).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Padova have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Cesena have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Pisa(away) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 0-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Monza(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cittadella(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ospitaletto(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sampdoria(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 0-3 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Forli(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Vis Pesaro(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fossombrone(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Padova win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Cesena win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Cesena 3-4 Padova | Serie B |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Padova 1-1 Cesena | Serie B |
| Aug 4, 2024 | Cesena 3-1 Padova | Coppa Italia |
| Feb 28, 2021 | Padova 0-0 Cesena | Serie C - Girone B |
| Nov 2, 2020 | Cesena 0-2 Padova | Serie C - Girone B |
| Feb 9, 2020 | Cesena 1-1 Padova | Serie C - Girone B |
How many goals should we expect?
Padova score 1.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Cesena score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova | 1.1 | 1.6 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Cesena | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Padova sit 6th in Serie B (3 points from 1 matches) and Cesena sit 10th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Padova | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Cesena | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Padova vs Cesena?
- The Footlab model makes Padova the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Cesena.
- Where and when is Padova vs Cesena played?
- Padova vs Cesena is played on December 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Euganeo, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.