Changwon City vs Daejeon Korail: prediction and stats
K3 LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC)Changwon Civil Stadium, Changwon
The Footlab model makes Daejeon Korail the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Changwon City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Changwon City vs Daejeon Korail?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Changwon City (1,663) and Daejeon Korail (1,745).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Changwon City have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Daejeon Korail have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Busan Transportation(away) | 3-4 | K3 League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Jeonbuk Motors II(home) | 1-1 | K3 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Gimhae City(home) | 1-5 | FA Cup |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Chuncheon(home) | 1-1 | K3 League |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Geumsan Insam(home) | 3-0 | FA Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Siheung Citizen(away) | 0-2 | K3 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Pocheon(away) | 1-1 | K3 League |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Gyeongju HNP(home) | 0-1 | K3 League |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Pocheon(away) | 0-2 | FA Cup |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Busan Transportation(away) | 1-0 | K3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Changwon City win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Daejeon Korail win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Daejeon Korail 1-0 Changwon City | K3 League |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Changwon City 0-0 Daejeon Korail | K3 League |
| May 2, 2025 | Daejeon Korail 1-1 Changwon City | K3 League |
| Jul 5, 2024 | Daejeon Korail 3-3 Changwon City | K3 League |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Changwon City 0-1 Daejeon Korail | K3 League |
| Aug 11, 2023 | Changwon City 2-4 Daejeon Korail | K3 League |
Last archived meeting: Daejeon Korail vs Changwon City on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Changwon City score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Daejeon Korail score 1.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Changwon City | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Daejeon Korail | 1.4 | 0.7 | 8 | 2/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Changwon City sit 6th in K3 League (26 points from 19 matches) and Daejeon Korail sit 4th (32 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Daejeon Korail | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 11 | 28 |
| 4 | Daejeon Korail | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 15 | 32 |
| 5 | Changwon City | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 23 |
| 6 | Changwon City | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 22 | 21 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Changwon City vs Daejeon Korail?
- The Footlab model makes Daejeon Korail the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Changwon City.
- Where and when is Changwon City vs Daejeon Korail played?
- Changwon City vs Daejeon Korail is played on September 5, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC) at Changwon Civil Stadium, in the K3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.