Daejeon Korail vs Ulsan Citizen: prediction and stats
K3 LeagueRegular Season - 22Kick-off on September 11, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Daejeon World Cup Secondary Stadium, Daejeon
The Footlab model makes Daejeon Korail the favourite at 57%, against 27% for a draw and 16% for Ulsan Citizen. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Daejeon Korail vs Ulsan Citizen?
Daejeon Korail starts as the favourite with a 165-point Elo edge (1,734 vs 1,569).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Daejeon Korail have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Ulsan Citizen have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Siheung Citizen(away) | 0-2 | K3 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Pocheon(away) | 1-1 | K3 League |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Gyeongju HNP(home) | 0-1 | K3 League |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Pocheon(away) | 0-2 | FA Cup |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Busan Transportation(away) | 1-0 | K3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Jeonbuk Motors II(away) | 1-0 | K3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Gwangju FC(home) | 0-1 | FA Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Ulsan Hyundai FC(home) | 1-0 | FA Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Chuncheon(away) | 1-2 | K3 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Seoul E-Land FC(home) | 4-2 | FA Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Daejeon Korail win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Ulsan Citizen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | Ulsan Citizen 0-1 Daejeon Korail | K3 League |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Ulsan Citizen 1-2 Daejeon Korail | K3 League |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Daejeon Korail 3-0 Ulsan Citizen | K3 League |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Ulsan Citizen 1-1 Daejeon Korail | K3 League |
| May 31, 2024 | Daejeon Korail 1-1 Ulsan Citizen | K3 League |
| Jul 21, 2023 | Daejeon Korail 1-2 Ulsan Citizen | K3 League |
Last archived meeting: Ulsan Citizen vs Daejeon Korail on May 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Daejeon Korail score 1.4 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Ulsan Citizen score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daejeon Korail | 1.4 | 0.7 | 8 | 2/15 | 5/15 |
| Ulsan Citizen | 1.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Daejeon Korail sit 4th in K3 League (32 points from 19 matches) and Ulsan Citizen sit 10th (22 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Daejeon Korail | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 11 | 28 |
| 4 | Daejeon Korail | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 15 | 32 |
| 10 | Ulsan Citizen | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 21 | 22 |
| 11 | Ulsan Citizen | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Daejeon Korail vs Ulsan Citizen?
- The Footlab model makes Daejeon Korail the favourite at 57%, against 27% for a draw and 16% for Ulsan Citizen.
- Where and when is Daejeon Korail vs Ulsan Citizen played?
- Daejeon Korail vs Ulsan Citizen is played on September 11, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Daejeon World Cup Secondary Stadium, in the K3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.