Ulsan Citizen vs Gyeongju HNP: prediction and stats
K3 LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Ulsan Complex Stadium, Ulsan
The Footlab model makes Gyeongju HNP the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Ulsan Citizen. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ulsan Citizen vs Gyeongju HNP?
A very open match: only 97 Elo points separate Ulsan Citizen (1,569) and Gyeongju HNP (1,665).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ulsan Citizen have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Gyeongju HNP have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Jeonbuk Motors II(away) | 1-0 | K3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Gwangju FC(home) | 0-1 | FA Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Ulsan Hyundai FC(home) | 1-0 | FA Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Chuncheon(away) | 1-2 | K3 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Seoul E-Land FC(home) | 4-2 | FA Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Yangpyeong(away) | 3-3 | K3 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Siheung Citizen(home) | 1-0 | K3 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Cheongju(away) | 0-4 | FA Cup |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Daejeon Korail(away) | 1-0 | K3 League |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Seosan Pioneer(home) | 3-0 | FA Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Ulsan Citizen win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Gyeongju HNP win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Gyeongju HNP 2-2 Ulsan Citizen | K3 League |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Gyeongju HNP 2-2 Ulsan Citizen | K3 League |
| Jun 28, 2025 | Ulsan Citizen 3-4 Gyeongju HNP | K3 League |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Ulsan Citizen 1-4 Gyeongju HNP | K3 League |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Gyeongju HNP 1-2 Ulsan Citizen | K3 League |
| Jul 1, 2023 | Gyeongju HNP 0-0 Ulsan Citizen | K3 League |
Last archived meeting: Gyeongju HNP vs Ulsan Citizen on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ulsan Citizen score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Gyeongju HNP score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulsan Citizen | 1.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Gyeongju HNP | 1.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ulsan Citizen sit 10th in K3 League (22 points from 19 matches) and Gyeongju HNP sit 8th (23 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gyeongju HNP | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 27 | 27 | 23 |
| 10 | Gyeongju HNP | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 15 |
| 10 | Ulsan Citizen | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 21 | 22 |
| 11 | Ulsan Citizen | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ulsan Citizen vs Gyeongju HNP?
- The Footlab model makes Gyeongju HNP the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Ulsan Citizen.
- Where and when is Ulsan Citizen vs Gyeongju HNP played?
- Ulsan Citizen vs Gyeongju HNP is played on September 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Ulsan Complex Stadium, in the K3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.