Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 32Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Arena Condá, Chapecó, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Fluminense the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Chapecoense-sc. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense?
Fluminense starts as the favourite with a 184-point Elo edge (2,013 vs 1,830).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chapecoense-sc have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Fluminense have 5, 8 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bahia(home) | 3-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Coritiba(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Cruzeiro(away) | 0-2 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cruzeiro(home) | 0-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Santos(away) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Remo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Palmeiras(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(home) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Botafogo(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Chapecoense-sc win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Fluminense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Fluminense 2-1 Chapecoense-sc | Serie A |
| Dec 10, 2021 | Fluminense 3-0 Chapecoense-sc | Serie A |
| Sep 8, 2021 | Chapecoense-sc 1-2 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Oct 26, 2019 | Fluminense 1-1 Chapecoense-sc | Serie A |
| Jun 13, 2019 | Chapecoense-sc 1-1 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Sep 24, 2018 | Chapecoense-sc 1-2 Fluminense | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Fluminense vs Chapecoense-sc on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chapecoense-sc score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Fluminense score 1.2 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc | 1.2 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Fluminense | 1.2 | 1.0 | 3 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chapecoense-sc sit 20th in Serie A (11 points from 22 matches) and Fluminense sit 4th (41 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 41 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 46 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense?
- The Footlab model makes Fluminense the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Chapecoense-sc.
- Where and when is Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense played?
- Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense is played on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Condá, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.