Santos vs Bahia: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 32Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos, São Paulo
The Footlab AI model makes Santos the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Bahia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Santos wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santos vs Bahia?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Santos (1,888) and Bahia (1,879).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Santos vs Bahia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Santos
4-2-3-1- 9Gabriel Barbosa
- 28C. Oliva
- 6Arthur
- 48Gustavo Henrique Pereira
- 8Gabriel Bontempo
- 7Everton
- 31G. Escobar
- 23Rodinei
- 15Willian Arão
- 4Lucas Veríssimo
- 1Diógenes
Known absences
NeymarOut · Calf injury
Bahia
4-3-3- 9A. Véliz
- 16Erick Pulga
- 99C. Olivera
- 11Rodrigo Nestor
- 5N. Acevedo
- 14Erick
- 33David Duarte
- 46Luciano Juba
- 44Marcos Victor
- 4Kanu
- 1Ronaldo
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 05:10 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santos have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Bahia have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Sao Paulo(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Remo(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Atletico-MG(away) | 2-4 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Cruzeiro(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Atletico-MG(home) | 2-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Remo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 5, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Internacional(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vitoria(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Santos win, 4 draws, 1 Bahia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Bahia 2-2 Santos | Serie A |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Bahia 2-0 Santos | Serie A |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Santos 2-2 Bahia | Serie A |
| Sep 18, 2023 | Bahia 1-2 Santos | Serie A |
| May 31, 2023 | Bahia 1-1 Santos | Copa Do Brasil |
| May 17, 2023 | Santos 0-0 Bahia | Copa Do Brasil |
How many goals should we expect?
Santos score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Bahia score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | 1.4 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Bahia | 1.6 | 1.3 | 4 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santos sit 8th in Serie A (41 points from 28 matches) and Bahia sit 6th (46 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43 | 35 | 46 |
| 8 | Santos | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 41 | 41 |
A question about Santos vs Bahia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santos vs Bahia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Santos the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Bahia.
- Where and when is Santos vs Bahia played?
- Santos vs Bahia is played on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.