Match

Coritiba vs Gremio: prediction and stats

Serie ARegular Season - 32Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Curitiba, Paraná

CoritibaGremio

The Footlab AI model makes Coritiba the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Gremio. The most likely score is 1-1. If Coritiba wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Coritiba vs Gremio?

A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate Coritiba (1,800) and Gremio (1,823).

46%26%28%
Coritiba winDrawGremio win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Coritiba vs Gremio

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Coritiba

4-2-3-1
  1. 32Pedro Rocha
  1. 19S. Gómez
  2. 21Thiago Santos
  3. 10Josué
  4. 7J. Lavega
  5. 77Breno Lopes
  1. 55Jacy
  2. 23Tiago Cóser
  3. 14F. Bustos
  4. 6Felipe Jonatan
  1. 1Pedro Luccas

Gremio

4-1-4-1
  1. 95Carlos Vinícius
  1. 20M. Villasanti
  2. 7C. Pavón
  3. 9F. Amuzu
  4. 15Danilo Barbosa
  5. 10F. Krovinović
  1. 82Wallace
  2. 4W. Kannemann
  3. 27Diego Caito
  4. 23Marlon
  1. 1Weverton

Computed on October 15, 2026 at 05:29 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Coritiba have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Gremio have 4, 5 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Coritiba
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 12, 2026Botafogo(home)1-1Serie A
Oct 9, 2026Fluminense(away)0-4Serie A
Sep 19, 2026Vasco DA Gama(away)0-5Serie A
Sep 12, 2026Atletico Paranaense(home)3-3Serie A
Sep 6, 2026Mirassol(home)1-2Serie A
Gremio
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Internacional(home)1-1Serie A
Oct 7, 2026Remo(away)1-1Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Palmeiras(home)0-0Serie A
Sep 16, 2026Botafogo(away)2-3Serie A
Sep 12, 2026Vasco DA Gama(home)1-2Serie A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Coritiba wins, 1 draw, 5 Gremio wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 26, 2026Gremio 1-0 CoritibaSerie A
Nov 1, 2023Coritiba 1-2 GremioSerie A
Jun 25, 2023Gremio 5-1 CoritibaSerie A
Jan 31, 2021Coritiba 1-1 GremioSerie A
Oct 7, 2020Gremio 2-1 CoritibaSerie A
Oct 15, 2017Coritiba 0-1 GremioSerie A

Last archived meeting: Gremio vs Coritiba on Apr 26, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Coritiba score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Gremio score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Coritiba1.31.929/1511/15
Gremio1.01.138/156/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Coritiba sit 11th in Serie A (39 points from 30 matches) and Gremio sit 18th (31 points from 30 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
11Coritiba3010911384839
18Gremio3071013324031

A question about Coritiba vs Gremio?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Coritiba vs Gremio?
The Footlab AI model makes Coritiba the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Gremio.
Where and when is Coritiba vs Gremio played?
Coritiba vs Gremio is played on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, in the Serie A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Coritiba and Gremio

Ready to know everything about football?