Match

Mirassol vs Sao Paulo: prediction and stats

Serie ARegular Season - 32Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol, São Paulo

MirassolSao Paulo

The Footlab AI model makes Mirassol the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Sao Paulo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Mirassol wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Mirassol vs Sao Paulo?

A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Mirassol (1,840) and Sao Paulo (1,815).

48%26%26%
Mirassol winDrawSao Paulo win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Mirassol vs Sao Paulo

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Mirassol

4-2-3-1
  1. 30Bruno Santos
  1. 33Eduardo
  2. 27Denilson
  3. 10Chico
  4. 95Edson
  5. 77Alesson
  1. 3Willian Machado
  2. 6Reinaldo
  3. 32Igor Formiga
  4. 34João Victor
  1. 22Walter

Sao Paulo

3-4-3
  1. 37Artur
  2. 16D. Bobadilla
  3. 9J. Calleri
  1. 8Marcos Antônio
  2. 32Pedro Lima
  3. 29Pablo Maia
  4. 18Wendell
  1. 5R. Arboleda
  2. 2R. Tolói
  3. 35Sabino
  1. 31Carlos Coronel

Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:43 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mirassol have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Sao Paulo have 4, 4 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Mirassol
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 7, 2026RB Bragantino(away)1-1Serie A
Sep 27, 2026Uberlandia(away)4-0Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 2026Botafogo(home)2-0Serie A
Sep 13, 2026Vitoria(home)2-2Serie A
Sep 6, 2026Coritiba(away)2-1Serie A
Sao Paulo
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 8, 2026Cruzeiro(away)0-2Serie A
Oct 2, 2026Santos(home)1-2Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Internacional(home)1-0Serie A
Sep 16, 2026Boca Juniors(home)1-1CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Sep 12, 2026Palmeiras(away)0-2Serie A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Mirassol wins, 1 draw, 2 Sao Paulo wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 26, 2026Sao Paulo 1-0 MirassolSerie A
Jan 11, 2026Mirassol 3-0 Sao PauloPaulista - A1
Oct 19, 2025Mirassol 3-0 Sao PauloSerie A
May 24, 2025Sao Paulo 0-2 MirassolSerie A
Feb 5, 2025Sao Paulo 4-1 MirassolPaulista - A1
Jan 23, 2024Mirassol 1-1 Sao PauloPaulista - A1

Last archived meeting: Sao Paulo vs Mirassol on Apr 26, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Mirassol score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Sao Paulo score 1.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Mirassol1.31.3310/156/15
Sao Paulo1.01.229/155/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Mirassol sit 15th in Serie A (33 points from 29 matches) and Sao Paulo sit 11th (36 points from 29 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
11Sao Paulo2910613333436
15Mirassol298912344333

A question about Mirassol vs Sao Paulo?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Mirassol vs Sao Paulo?
The Footlab AI model makes Mirassol the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Sao Paulo.
Where and when is Mirassol vs Sao Paulo played?
Mirassol vs Sao Paulo is played on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, in the Serie A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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