Match

Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense: prediction and stats

Serie ARegular Season - 32Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Manoel Barradas, Salvador, Bahia

VitoriaAtletico Paranaense

The Footlab AI model makes Vitoria the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Atletico Paranaense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Vitoria wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense?

A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Vitoria (1,812) and Atletico Paranaense (1,881).

41%25%34%
Vitoria winDrawAtletico Paranaense win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Vitoria

4-2-3-1
  1. 91Rene
  1. 12D. Tarzia
  2. 33Erick
  3. 95Caíque
  4. 10Matheuzinho
  5. 6E. Martínez
  1. 36Luan Cândido
  2. 83Jamerson
  3. 98Mateusinho
  4. 25Cacá
  1. 1Lucas Arcanjo

Atletico Paranaense

3-4-2-1
  1. 9K. Viveros
  1. 16Jádson
  2. 7S. Mendoza
  3. 14Luiz Gustavo
  4. 21Leozinho
  5. 12Gilberto
  6. 37L. Esquivel
  1. 4Arthur Dias
  2. 33J. Aguirre
  3. 25Dantas
  1. 1Mycael

Computed on October 8, 2026 at 10:21 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vitoria have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Atletico Paranaense have 8, 5 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Vitoria
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 7, 2026Chapecoense-sc(home)4-0Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Cruzeiro(home)1-3Serie A
Sep 13, 2026Mirassol(away)2-2Serie A
Sep 7, 2026Gremio(home)1-0Serie A
Sep 3, 2026Vasco DA Gama(home)0-2Copa Do Brasil
Atletico Paranaense
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 20, 2026Bahia(home)2-1Serie A
Sep 12, 2026Coritiba(away)3-3Serie A
Sep 6, 2026Cruzeiro(away)1-3Serie A
Aug 30, 2026Fluminense(home)3-3Serie A
Aug 24, 2026Botafogo(away)3-2Serie A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Vitoria wins, 0 draws, 4 Atletico Paranaense wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 6, 2026Vitoria 4-0 Atletico ParanaenseCopa Do Brasil
Aug 4, 2026Atletico Paranaense 2-0 VitoriaCopa Do Brasil
Apr 26, 2026Atletico Paranaense 3-1 VitoriaSerie A
Nov 2, 2024Atletico Paranaense 1-2 VitoriaSerie A
Jun 30, 2024Vitoria 0-1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
Nov 17, 2018Vitoria 1-2 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A

Last archived meeting: Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense on Aug 6, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Vitoria score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Paranaense score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Vitoria0.91.553/156/15
Atletico Paranaense1.71.359/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Vitoria sit 12th in Serie A (36 points from 29 matches) and Atletico Paranaense sit 3rd (49 points from 28 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3Atletico Paranaense281477433249
12Vitoria2910613324236

A question about Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense?
The Footlab AI model makes Vitoria the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Atletico Paranaense.
Where and when is Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense played?
Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense is played on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Manoel Barradas, in the Serie A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Vitoria and Atletico Paranaense

Ready to know everything about football?