Charlton vs Southampton: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 23Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Valley, London
The Footlab AI model makes Southampton the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Charlton. The most likely score is 1-1. If Southampton wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,904 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Charlton vs Southampton?
Southampton starts as the favourite with a 223-point Elo edge (2,092 vs 1,869).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Charlton vs Southampton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Charlton
4-2-3-1- 11M. Leaburn
- 9K. Ahearne-Grant
- 7T. Campbell
- 6C. Coventry
- 34O. Skipp
- 33Micah Mbick
- 5L. Jones
- 20D. McNamara
- 12Billy Dawson Koumetio
- 2K. Ramsay
- 13A. Okonkwo
Southampton
4-2-3-1- 9C. Larin
- 10F. Azaz
- 30J. Ward-Prowse
- 7Léo Scienza
- 4F. Downes
- 26Cameron Bragg
- 13K. Schlotterbeck
- 5J. Stephens
- 14J. Bree
- 3R. Manning
- 1Daniel Peretz
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 04:50 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Charlton have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Southampton have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Watford(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Bolton(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 4-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Charlton wins, 1 draw, 1 Southampton win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Southampton 1-1 Charlton | Championship |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Charlton 1-5 Southampton | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Southampton vs Charlton on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Charlton score 1.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Southampton score 1.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton | 1.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Southampton | 1.8 | 1.0 | 5 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Charlton sit 17th in Championship (14 points from 11 matches) and Southampton sit 8th (17 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Southampton | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 17 |
| 17 | Charlton | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 14 |
A question about Charlton vs Southampton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Charlton vs Southampton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Southampton the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Charlton.
- Where and when is Charlton vs Southampton played?
- Charlton vs Southampton is played on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Valley, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.