Charlton vs Southampton: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 23Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Valley, London
The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Charlton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Charlton vs Southampton?
Southampton starts as the favourite with a 174-point Elo edge (2,040 vs 1,865).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Charlton have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Southampton have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Derby(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 3-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Reading(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Watford(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Preußen Münster(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Eintracht Braunschweig(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Charlton win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Southampton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Southampton 1-1 Charlton | Championship |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Charlton 1-5 Southampton | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Southampton vs Charlton on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Charlton score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Southampton score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Southampton | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Charlton sit 3rd in Championship (6 points from 2 matches) and Southampton sit 24th (-1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Charlton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 24 | Southampton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Charlton vs Southampton?
- The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Charlton.
- Where and when is Charlton vs Southampton played?
- Charlton vs Southampton is played on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Valley, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.