Preston vs Derby: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 23Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Deepdale, Preston
The Footlab model makes Derby the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Preston. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Preston vs Derby?
Derby starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (1,880 vs 1,778).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Preston have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Derby have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bolton(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Huddersfield(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stockport County(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Bradford(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cardiff(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Charlton(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Preston win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Derby win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Preston 0-1 Derby | Championship |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Derby 0-1 Preston | Championship |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Derby 2-0 Preston | Championship |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Preston 1-1 Derby | Championship |
| Apr 2, 2022 | Derby 1-0 Preston | Championship |
| Oct 16, 2021 | Preston 0-0 Derby | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Preston score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Derby score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston | 1.3 | 1.9 | 0 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Derby | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Preston sit 20th in Championship (0 points from 2 matches) and Derby sit 16th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Derby | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 20 | Preston | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Preston vs Derby?
- The Footlab model makes Derby the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Preston.
- Where and when is Preston vs Derby played?
- Preston vs Derby is played on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Deepdale, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.