Sheffield Utd vs Middlesbrough: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 23Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Bramall Lane, Sheffield
The Footlab model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Sheffield Utd. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sheffield Utd vs Middlesbrough?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Sheffield Utd (1,929) and Middlesbrough (1,931).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sheffield Utd have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Middlesbrough have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Swansea(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Mansfield Town(away) | 3-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | VfL Bochum(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Blackburn(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sheffield Utd win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Middlesbrough win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2026 | Sheffield Utd 1-2 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Middlesbrough 1-0 Sheffield Utd | Championship |
| Feb 12, 2025 | Sheffield Utd 3-1 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Middlesbrough 1-0 Sheffield Utd | Championship |
| Feb 15, 2023 | Sheffield Utd 1-3 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Aug 14, 2022 | Middlesbrough 2-2 Sheffield Utd | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Sheffield Utd vs Middlesbrough on Feb 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sheffield Utd score 1.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Middlesbrough score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Utd | 1.5 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Middlesbrough | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sheffield Utd sit 15th in Championship (2 points from 2 matches) and Middlesbrough sit 11th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Middlesbrough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sheffield Utd vs Middlesbrough?
- The Footlab model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Sheffield Utd.
- Where and when is Sheffield Utd vs Middlesbrough played?
- Sheffield Utd vs Middlesbrough is played on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Bramall Lane, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.