Chaves vs Farense: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Chaves
The Footlab AI model makes Farense the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Chaves. The most likely score is 1-1. If Farense wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,810 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 29, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chaves vs Farense?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Chaves (1,919) and Farense (1,966).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chaves vs Farense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chaves
4-3-3- 10André Rodrigues
- 30Costinha
- 17Roberto
- 19Gilberto García
- 42Aílson Tavares
- 16D. Yearwood
- 23Léo Alabá
- 34Ricardo Alves
- 7R. Esajas
- 14N. Araújo
- 1João Valido
Farense
4-3-3- 7João Resende
- 17André Candeias
- 11Nélson Oliveira
- 29Cláudio Falcão
- 10S. Singh
- 27Mattheus Oliveira
- 22Toni Herrero
- 37Gonçalo Silva
- 44N. Zolotić
- 78Alex Pinto
- 97F. Buntić
Computed on October 29, 2026 at 01:50 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chaves have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Farense have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Vizela(home) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Os Marialvas(home) | 2-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(away) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Farense(away) | 0-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guarda(away) | 3-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Penafiel(home) | 1-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 17, 2026 | AD Marco 09(home) | 3-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Feirense(home) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Chaves(home) | 4-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sacavenense(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Chaves wins, 1 draw, 2 Farense wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Farense 4-0 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Chaves 2-0 Farense | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Farense 0-2 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Feb 4, 2024 | Chaves 1-1 Farense | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Farense 5-0 Chaves | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 30, 2022 | Farense 1-2 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Chaves score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Farense score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Farense | 1.4 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chaves sit 14th in Segunda Liga (8 points from 8 matches) and Farense sit 5th (14 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Farense | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 14 |
| 14 | Chaves | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 8 |
A question about Chaves vs Farense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chaves vs Farense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Farense the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Chaves.
- Where and when is Chaves vs Farense played?
- Chaves vs Farense is played on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.