Academica vs Penafiel: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio EFAPEL, Coimbra
The Footlab AI model makes Academica the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Penafiel. The most likely score is 1-1. If Academica wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,974 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Academica vs Penafiel?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Academica (2,024) and Penafiel (1,942).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Academica vs Penafiel
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Academica
4-3-3- 19Afonso Rodrigues
- 8K. Zohi
- 10I. Faure
- 20J. Sinisterra
- 25L. Pierre
- 92A. Coundoul
- 5Leandro Silva
- 2Xavi
- 3Ricardo Teixeira
- 54Ni
- 12Victor Braga
Penafiel
3-4-3- 10Davo
- 17João Pinto
- 9Max Svensson
- 8Àlex Carbonell
- 21Pedro Sá
- 50Francisco Varela
- 85Carlinhos Augusto
- 2Iano Imbene
- 5Jaime Sánchez
- 27Gonçalo Negrão
- 1Miguel Oliveira
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 04:32 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Academica have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Penafiel have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 3-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | União de Leiria(away) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Real(away) | 4-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Benfica B(home) | 0-3 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Penafiel(away) | 1-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Leça(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 9, 2026 | AVS(home) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Oliveirense(away) | 2-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(away) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Academica(home) | 4-1 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Academica wins, 2 draws, 1 Penafiel win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Penafiel 4-1 Academica | Segunda Liga |
| Apr 16, 2022 | Academica 0-0 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Dec 5, 2021 | Penafiel 0-0 Academica | Segunda Liga |
| Mar 7, 2021 | Penafiel 1-2 Academica | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 18, 2020 | Academica 2-1 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Mar 5, 2020 | Academica 3-0 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Academica score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Penafiel score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica | 1.5 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Penafiel | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Academica sit 6th in Segunda Liga (12 points from 7 matches) and Penafiel sit 4th (13 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Academica | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
A question about Academica vs Penafiel?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Academica vs Penafiel?
- The Footlab AI model makes Academica the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Penafiel.
- Where and when is Academica vs Penafiel played?
- Academica vs Penafiel is played on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio EFAPEL, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.